Bitcoin Market Structure Resembles June 2021
Bitcoin ($BTC) has recently found itself in a familiar market structure, resembling the price action observed in June 2021. Currently consolidating between the 21-week and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMAs), Bitcoin is nearing a crucial point in its cycle. As the price approaches the 21-week EMA, which stands at approximately $88,500, traders and analysts are closely monitoring for any potential breakout signals. Historical patterns suggest that the cryptocurrency may be on the brink of another significant move, much like the breakout that took place in July 2021, eventually propelling Bitcoin to new all-time highs by November 2021.
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Back in June 2021, price was consolidating between the 21-week EMA (green) and 50-week EMA (blue) after a crash.
Right now, Bitcoin is consolidating between the same EMAs after a crash.
(By the way, $BTC indeed broke out from its triangle by late July 2021 to reach new All…— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) March 17, 2025)
Analysis from Crypto Analyst Rekt Capital
According to Crypto Analyst Rekt Capital on X, the 21-week EMA, represented by the green line on the chart, has become a key reference point for Bitcoin’s price movements. Bitcoin is getting closer to this moving average, which currently aligns around $88,500. In the past, such proximity to the 21-week EMA has preceded major breakout movements, particularly when Bitcoin consolidates between the 21-week and the 50-week EMAs. The breakout signal, as seen in 2021, was a weekly close above the 21-week EMA followed by a successful post-breakout retest. This pattern is considered a confirmation of upward momentum, leading to substantial price gains.
Bitcoin’s 2021 Breakout and Market Outlook
The current market structure for Bitcoin is strikingly similar to what was observed in mid-2021. After a significant correction, Bitcoin is once again consolidating between the 21-week and 50-week EMAs. The price has been contained within this range for some time now, creating a sense of compression that is often a precursor to increased volatility. Price compression has historically been a strong indicator that a breakout is on the horizon.
For traders, the key levels to monitor are the 21-week EMA at $88,500 and the 50-week EMA, which continues to provide support. If Bitcoin closes above the 21-week EMA and holds the level with a successful retest, a new bullish trend could begin. The potential for such a move is significant, as Bitcoin has shown in the past that it can surge rapidly once it breaks free from periods of consolidation.
For traders, the current market structure presents both a risk and an opportunity. If Bitcoin successfully breaks above the 21-week EMA, it could lead to substantial gains, reminiscent of the rally in late 2021. However, if the price fails to break out or experiences a rejection at this critical level, there is a risk of continued consolidation or even a downward correction.
Investors who have been holding Bitcoin through this period of consolidation may see this as a crucial time to evaluate their positions. A breakout could lead to substantial profits, while a failure to break out could signal a longer-term sideways trend. As with any market, proper risk management strategies should be employed, especially given Bitcoin’s inherent volatility.